Friday, August 03, 2007

Game Theory & The Mumbai Floods!

Rains and the subsequent flooding in Mumbai has clearly started losing it's seriousness. Let's be realistic if something happens once in a few years or even once a year then it'll be a topic of some interest to read/write/solve. The flood like situation has now become a weekly thing. So doesn't evoke anything more than a 'ho-hum' reaction from those who don't experience it.

Things in the not-so-distant future are going to be so bad that people will be scared even to flush the toilets in their homes as it may flood the surrounding area. Then as usual instead of treating the disease, we'll be busy treating the symptoms. We may have a fixed time-schedule for toilet flushes depending on the area in which you live. If you're in the western suburbs then 5-6am. If in the central suburbs then 6-7am. But if you're in the town area, no regulations for you... since we already have an well-accepted electric load-shedding model to lead us by example!

A few centuries from now when then ruins of Mumbai would be excavated like Mohenjo-Daro and Harrapa, I'm sure areas like Milan subway, Sion, King's Circle etc would be classified as being part of rivers or oceans!

The jury would be out till the end of the world to determine the reasons for this entire scenario. But from my very basic understanding of the Mumbai landscape and some even more basic logic and science the answer is pretty clear. Complete lack of respect for ecology. Mumbai, with it's peninsular geography is very different from most cities and hence needs to be planned even more carefully. A complete overhauling needs to be undertaken instead of just tinkering around with some issues which hardly are going to make a difference or like in many cases they're going to worsen the situation.

The amount of immigration into Mumbai and the ever-increasing constructions are the reasons and it's practically a no-brainer to identify them. To solve the problem of inadequacy of residential property what do we do? Authorize more slums which double up as convenient vote banks & grant FSI without having second thoughts.

The slums, illegal encroachments etc may be the sin that is destroying Mumbai but the middle/upper middle class are no saints. If areas with infrastructure facilities built for 30 rooms of size 15'x15' are now forced to serve 60 storied towers with 250 apartments and 1000+ occupants, it's anyone's guess how things are going to shape up. The skyline of Central Mumbai which was once dotted by chimneys is now being replaced by 40+ storied towers. Areas like Kalbadevi, Tardeo etc are being adored with 60+ storied towers.

Where the hell is the infrastructure to support this kind of development? Where are these people getting water from? Where is their sewage being disposed off? Where are they getting electricity from? The solution is not to cut these basic necessities from villages/towns just to cover up for some pathetic planning and complete lack of vision and disrespect for nature.

Are the various reclamation projects which are eating into the Arabian Sea and the nearby creeks in harmony with the ecology? The water logging problems are a direct result of these activities. The water which earlier had many exit channels now is blocked with no way out. The irregularity of rainfall is something which is going to baffle the experts for years to come. Are the reasons for a shift from consistent, season-long rainfall to an erratic and concentrated-in-an-hour type of a quickie natural? I have no doubts about it in my mind but due to lack of any scientific explanation I'm not making any claims.

The emulation of high-rise buldings and other 'visible' attributes that characterise every other city in the world is useless untill efforts are made to emulate the 'invisible' attributes of those cities. Garbage disposal, sewage water treatment, electricity, fresh water, green spaces, rainfall arrestment... Do we have enough for the crores that live in Mumbai? I’m not anti-development but the fact of the matter remains that there are just two ways about it... Make the structure sufficient to carry the load or Cut down the load to a level which is sustainable. And this should be done across the cross section and not just unleashing the wrath on the 60%+ staying in slums and shanties!

Having disaster recovery centres, cleaning up nallas, Mithi river and other BMC theatrics is like going to McDonald's insisting for Diet Coke when you've already got a Extra Cheese burger in your tray.

This is a classic case of Game Theory. If everyone collectively sets aside their own interests or are ready to sacrifice a small part then it can result in a greater good for all involved. But then each one goes after the holy grail to keep it all for himself which ultimately results into no one getting anything!

We should really start distinguishing between luxuries and necessities from a long term and collective point of view. Why am I even writing all this? Even a catastrophe is not enough to wake us from our deep slumber because it's not possible to wake up someone whose pretending to be asleep!

Cheers!

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